2010 Economic Forecast
This morning Martin Weiss Founder and President of Weiss Research, Inc. hosted a global online conference featuring

Larry Edelson Editor, Weiss Research’s Uncommon Wisdom and Real Wealth Report and global editors Mike Larson, Monty Agarwal, Tony Sagami and Sean Brodrick. Here are the main points they discussed.
1. The Fed will not stop printing money until forced to. In the past, the Fed took money out of the system soon after they put it in as after 9-11.. This time they keep printing and will continue to. This is their strategy which will keep the dollar under pressure. We have had 120 bank failures, an excuse for the Fed to keep printing money. Broad unemployment rate is 18% is another reason for the Fed to keep the priting presses rolling. Every asset is rising vs the dollar.
2. Continuing long term decline in dollar. Fed is increasing dollars which means they are becoming worth less. Will get worse in 2010. Many voices are asking for a basket of other currencies to replace dollar. You could see free fall and dollar panic. New lows are close. New low in dollar vs Euro could set off panic selling.
3. Risk will be redefined as holding US dollars as the riskiest investment with a shift into anything that goes up vs dollar. Gold, oil and other tangible assets like real estate and natural resource stocks that can’t be manipulated, Asian stocks, multinationals. Core strategy: Replace the dollar as a store of value.
4 Central bankers are going to let gold climb higher and become active buyers. China has increased their gold holdings by 76%. India +56% a few weeks ago. 8% of all gold mined in the world was purchased recently by China and India+increasing private investorsthrogh ETF’s added $55 billion. 2010 estimate gold price $1300-$1500 and possibly higher. Every ounce you can buy for less than $1000 is a bargain. Oil estimate- $70-110. OPEC will continue to deliberate if oil should be priced in dollars.
5. 2010 recovery will be one of the weakest in history. 27.4 million unemployed or underemployed will get worse. Consumers already have or are afraid they will lose their income. Credit card interest rates increasing for everyone. Housing: one in five have lost all equity in their homes. Rising gas and heating prices. Incomes and assets declining while cost of living is increasing does not bode well for a recovery in 2010.
6. BRIC Estimated Economic 2010 Forecast: Brazil+5% China +9% and India +7% will grow 4x faster than US. Not reliant on credit cards, oil. First year of a mega cycle..Foundation for Cycles has a very accurate track record. Massive power shift from West to East-shift from debts to cash and commodities.
7. China will be one of the most profitable markets in the world. China created infrastructure with their stimulus with no debt. 2010 forecast: 30-40-50% vs Dow.
9. Beyond BRIC…Indonesia, Thialand and Vietnam will be the best economies in 2010. Vietnam is privatizing, boosting liquidity-real estate there will outperform. Thailand stocks are trading at less than book. China investing.
10. Soverign Wealth Funds:(national pension funds of nations) Top 10 have 3 trillion in capital and are going into natural resources. Asia will continue to hedge vs falling dollar. These funds will continue to be aggresive buyers of contra dollar investments. They are trend setters so private investors will follow.
11. Massive accelerating trend in mergers and acquisitions of gold and natural resources. Larger producers will buy smaller ones. 2010 will be a new phase in real estate boom in Asia. One Bankok investment is +35% in 6 months. Major urban areas like Hong Kong Sigapore. Recomendations: ETF i shares Asia Index Fund holds lots of real estates. Claymore Alpha-use limit orders when buying. Also conservative dividend paying ETFs and stocks.
Vehicles:
Falling dollar-ETF’s
Gold Allocation: Buy 1/2 now and wait for pullback. SPDR Gold Trust=GLD
Gold Stocks: Newmont, Barrick, Agniko Eagle, IamGold, Jaguar Mining, Exeter Resources (XRA)
Oil: Offshore: Asergy, Harvest Natural Resources (managing the US abandoned oil production in Venezuela with few assets there)
Oil Royalty Trusts: Permean Basin Trust 8% and Encore Energy Trust 12%
BRIC: ETF’s: FXI, PIN and EWZ
China Stocks:Duoyuan Global Water (DGW) and New Oriental Education (EDU) and China Road and Railway (Infrastructure plays)
- Posted on November 20, 2009 in Uncategorized |
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